New Mexico vs San Antonio Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 01:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
New Mexico vs San Antonio
Model pick: New Mexico (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.55 – 0.35
Total goals: 3.9
Over 2.5: 65%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| New Mexico | San Antonio |
|---|
| League position | #1 (34 pts) | #5 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 30% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*New Mexico shown at home, San Antonio shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
New Mexico — last 5
WWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
San Antonio — last 5
WDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | New Mexico (home) | San Antonio (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-2-1 in 9 (1.6 / 0.9 goals per game) | 3-5-2 in 10 (1.2 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 47%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.55 vs 0.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — New Mexico or draw (1X) | 99% |
| Double chance — San Antonio or draw (X2) | 7% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 95% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 90% / 10% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 54% / 46% |
| New Mexico clean sheet | 70% |
| San Antonio clean sheet | 3% |
🎯 Our Verdict
New Mexico is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. New Mexico are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.9, this shapes as an open game (65% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ New Mexico vs San Antonio — FAQ
Who will win New Mexico vs San Antonio?
Our statistical model makes New Mexico the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: New Mexico 61%, draw 20%, San Antonio 20%.
Will both teams score in New Mexico vs San Antonio?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in New Mexico vs San Antonio?
Expected goals are 3.55 for New Mexico and 0.35 for San Antonio — about 3.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in New Mexico vs San Antonio?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-0 (15%). Double chance for New Mexico or draw is 99%.