New York City vs Chicago Fire Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
New York City vs Chicago Fire
Model pick: New York City (51%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.8 – 1.07
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| New York City | Chicago Fire |
|---|
| League position | #8 (19 pts) | #3 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.4 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 2.2 |
*New York City shown at home, Chicago Fire shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
New York City — last 5
DWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Chicago Fire — last 5
DWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 13% of the time; 65% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | New York City (home) | Chicago Fire (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-3 in 8 (2.4 / 1.6 goals per game) | 3-2-1 in 6 (1.8 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 65% |
| Top scorer | Martin Ojeda (11) | Hugo Cuypers (13) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.8 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — New York City or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Chicago Fire or draw (X2) | 46% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| New York City clean sheet | 34% |
| Chicago Fire clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
New York City is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. New York City are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ New York City vs Chicago Fire — FAQ
Who will win New York City vs Chicago Fire?
Our statistical model makes New York City the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: New York City 51%, draw 25%, Chicago Fire 24%.
Will both teams score in New York City vs Chicago Fire?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in New York City vs Chicago Fire?
Expected goals are 1.8 for New York City and 1.07 for Chicago Fire — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in New York City vs Chicago Fire?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for New York City or draw is 78%.