New York City vs Nashville SC Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
New York City vs Nashville SC
Model pick: New York City (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.07
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| New York City | Nashville SC |
|---|
| League position | #8 (19 pts) | #1 (36 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.4 / 1.6 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 57% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.8 | 2.6 / 1.2 |
*New York City shown at home, Nashville SC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
New York City — last 5
LLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Nashville SC — last 5
WLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | New York City (home) | Nashville SC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-3 in 8 (2.4 / 1.6 goals per game) | 4-2-1 in 7 (1.1 / 0.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Nicolas Mercau (13) | – |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.42 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — New York City or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Nashville SC or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| New York City clean sheet | 34% |
| Nashville SC clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
New York City is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. New York City are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ New York City vs Nashville SC — FAQ
Who will win New York City vs Nashville SC?
Our statistical model makes New York City the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: New York City 42%, draw 27%, Nashville SC 32%.
Will both teams score in New York City vs Nashville SC?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in New York City vs Nashville SC?
Expected goals are 1.42 for New York City and 1.07 for Nashville SC — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in New York City vs Nashville SC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for New York City or draw is 72%.