New York City vs Toronto Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Jul 31, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
New York City vs Toronto
Model pick: New York City (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.78 – 0.81
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| New York City | Toronto |
|---|
| League position | #8 (19 pts) | #12 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.4 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*New York City shown at home, Toronto shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
New York City — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Toronto — last 5
LWDDL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | New York City (home) | Toronto (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-3 in 8 (2.4 / 1.6 goals per game) | 1-1-4 in 6 (0.8 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% |
| Top scorer | Martin Ojeda (11) | Petar Musa (13) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.78 vs 0.81):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — New York City or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Toronto or draw (X2) | 40% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| New York City clean sheet | 44% |
| Toronto clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
New York City is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. New York City are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ New York City vs Toronto — FAQ
Who will win New York City vs Toronto?
Our statistical model makes New York City the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: New York City 56%, draw 25%, Toronto 19%.
Will both teams score in New York City vs Toronto?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in New York City vs Toronto?
Expected goals are 1.78 for New York City and 0.81 for Toronto — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in New York City vs Toronto?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for New York City or draw is 83%.