New York Cosmos vs Sarasota Paradise Prediction & Preview
USL League One (USA) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL LEAGUE ONE (USA)
New York Cosmos vs Sarasota Paradise
Model pick: Sarasota Paradise (34%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.81 – 0.86
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 34%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| New York Cosmos | Sarasota Paradise |
|---|
| League position | #17 (18 pts) | #14 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.4 | 0.7 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 2.0 |
*New York Cosmos shown at home, Sarasota Paradise shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
New York Cosmos — last 5
LLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 60% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Sarasota Paradise — last 5
DLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | New York Cosmos (home) | Sarasota Paradise (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-4 in 10 (1.2 / 1.4 goals per game) | 1-3-8 in 12 (0.7 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 60% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
USL League One (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.93
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 61%
Use these USL League One (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.81 vs 0.86):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — New York Cosmos or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Sarasota Paradise or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 66% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 9% / 91% |
| New York Cosmos clean sheet | 42% |
| Sarasota Paradise clean sheet | 44% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sarasota Paradise is the model's most likely outcome at
34%. Despite playing away, Sarasota Paradise edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (66% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ New York Cosmos vs Sarasota Paradise — FAQ
Who will win New York Cosmos vs Sarasota Paradise?
Our statistical model makes Sarasota Paradise the most likely result at 34%. Full probabilities: New York Cosmos 32%, draw 34%, Sarasota Paradise 34%.
Will both teams score in New York Cosmos vs Sarasota Paradise?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in New York Cosmos vs Sarasota Paradise?
Expected goals are 0.81 for New York Cosmos and 0.86 for Sarasota Paradise — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in New York Cosmos vs Sarasota Paradise?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (19%). Double chance for New York Cosmos or draw is 66%.