New York RB vs Charlotte Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
New York RB vs Charlotte
Model pick: New York RB (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.12
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| New York RB | Charlotte |
|---|
| League position | #5 (22 pts) | #6 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*New York RB shown at home, Charlotte shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
New York RB — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Charlotte — last 5
WLDLD
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | New York RB (home) | Charlotte (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-2 in 7 (1.9 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-1-4 in 6 (1.0 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 58% |
| Top scorer | Julian Hall (9) | Pep Biel (7) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.5 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — New York RB or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Charlotte or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| New York RB clean sheet | 33% |
| Charlotte clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
New York RB is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. New York RB are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ New York RB vs Charlotte — FAQ
Who will win New York RB vs Charlotte?
Our statistical model makes New York RB the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: New York RB 44%, draw 27%, Charlotte 29%.
Will both teams score in New York RB vs Charlotte?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in New York RB vs Charlotte?
Expected goals are 1.5 for New York RB and 1.12 for Charlotte — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in New York RB vs Charlotte?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for New York RB or draw is 72%.