New York RB vs Chicago Fire Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
New York RB vs Chicago Fire
Model pick: Chicago Fire (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.71 – 1.18
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 64%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| New York RB | Chicago Fire |
|---|
| League position | #5 (22 pts) | #3 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.4 | 2.2 / 0.8 |
*New York RB shown at home, Chicago Fire shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
New York RB — last 5
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At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Chicago Fire — last 5
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On the road: clean sheet 13% of the time; 65% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | New York RB (home) | Chicago Fire (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-2 in 7 (1.9 / 2.0 goals per game) | 3-2-1 in 6 (1.8 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 65% |
| Top scorer | Julian Hall (9) | Hugo Cuypers (13) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.71 vs 1.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — New York RB or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Chicago Fire or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| New York RB clean sheet | 31% |
| Chicago Fire clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chicago Fire is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Chicago Fire edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ New York RB vs Chicago Fire — FAQ
Who will win New York RB vs Chicago Fire?
Our statistical model makes Chicago Fire the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: New York RB 35%, draw 24%, Chicago Fire 41%.
Will both teams score in New York RB vs Chicago Fire?
The model gives a 64% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in New York RB vs Chicago Fire?
Expected goals are 1.71 for New York RB and 1.18 for Chicago Fire — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in New York RB vs Chicago Fire?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for New York RB or draw is 74%.