New York RB vs Nashville SC Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
New York RB vs Nashville SC
Model pick: Nashville SC (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.38 – 1.12
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| New York RB | Nashville SC |
|---|
| League position | #5 (22 pts) | #1 (36 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 2.0 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 57% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.2 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*New York RB shown at home, Nashville SC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
New York RB — last 5
LLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Nashville SC — last 5
LDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | New York RB (home) | Nashville SC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-2 in 7 (1.9 / 2.0 goals per game) | 4-2-1 in 7 (1.1 / 0.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Julian Hall (9) | – |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.38 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — New York RB or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Nashville SC or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| New York RB clean sheet | 33% |
| Nashville SC clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nashville SC is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Nashville SC edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ New York RB vs Nashville SC — FAQ
Who will win New York RB vs Nashville SC?
Our statistical model makes Nashville SC the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: New York RB 36%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 38%.
Will both teams score in New York RB vs Nashville SC?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in New York RB vs Nashville SC?
Expected goals are 1.38 for New York RB and 1.12 for Nashville SC — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in New York RB vs Nashville SC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for New York RB or draw is 70%.