New York RB vs Philadelphia Union Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
New York RB vs Philadelphia Union
Model pick: Philadelphia Union (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.31 – 1.41
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| New York RB | Philadelphia Union |
|---|
| League position | #5 (22 pts) | #15 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 2.0 | 1.7 / 2.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*New York RB shown at home, Philadelphia Union shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
New York RB — last 5
LWLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Philadelphia Union — last 5
WLWDD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | New York RB (home) | Philadelphia Union (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-2 in 7 (1.9 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-1-7 in 9 (1.7 / 2.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 56% |
| Top scorer | Julian Hall (9) | – |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.31 vs 1.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — New York RB or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Philadelphia Union or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| New York RB clean sheet | 24% |
| Philadelphia Union clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Philadelphia Union is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Philadelphia Union edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ New York RB vs Philadelphia Union — FAQ
Who will win New York RB vs Philadelphia Union?
Our statistical model makes Philadelphia Union the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: New York RB 33%, draw 25%, Philadelphia Union 42%.
Will both teams score in New York RB vs Philadelphia Union?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in New York RB vs Philadelphia Union?
Expected goals are 1.31 for New York RB and 1.41 for Philadelphia Union — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in New York RB vs Philadelphia Union?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for New York RB or draw is 61%.