Newell's Old Boys vs Banfield Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Argentina) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (ARGENTINA)
Newell's Old Boys vs Banfield
Model pick: Newell's Old Boys (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.09 – 0.81
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Newell's Old Boys | Banfield |
|---|
| League position | #14 (15 pts) | #12 (18 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 12% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Newell's Old Boys shown at home, Banfield shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Newell's Old Boys — last 5
WLDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 30% of home games go over 2.5.
Banfield — last 5
LWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 37% of the time; 31% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Newell's Old Boys (home) | Banfield (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-4-3 in 8 (0.8 / 1.2 goals per game) | 1-1-6 in 8 (0.9 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 37% |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 31% |
| Top scorer | Ignacio Ramirez (4) | Tiziano Perrotta (6) |
Primera Division (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 44%
Use these Primera Division (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.09 vs 0.81):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Newell's Old Boys or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Banfield or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Newell's Old Boys clean sheet | 44% |
| Banfield clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Newell's Old Boys is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Newell's Old Boys are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Newell's Old Boys vs Banfield — FAQ
Who will win Newell's Old Boys vs Banfield?
Our statistical model makes Newell's Old Boys the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Newell's Old Boys 41%, draw 31%, Banfield 28%.
Will both teams score in Newell's Old Boys vs Banfield?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Newell's Old Boys vs Banfield?
Expected goals are 1.09 for Newell's Old Boys and 0.81 for Banfield — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Newell's Old Boys vs Banfield?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Newell's Old Boys or draw is 73%.