Nordmark Satrup vs Holstein Kiel II Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Nordmark Satrup vs Holstein Kiel II
Model pick: Holstein Kiel II (59%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.97 – 2.1
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nordmark Satrup | Holstein Kiel II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.0 | 3.2 / 1.2 |
*Nordmark Satrup shown at home, Holstein Kiel II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nordmark Satrup — last 5
LWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Holstein Kiel II — last 5
DWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 67% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nordmark Satrup (home) | Holstein Kiel II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.54
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 66%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.97 vs 2.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — Nordmark Satrup or draw (1X) | 37% |
| Double chance — Holstein Kiel II or draw (X2) | 83% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Nordmark Satrup clean sheet | 12% |
| Holstein Kiel II clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Holstein Kiel II is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Despite playing away, Holstein Kiel II edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nordmark Satrup vs Holstein Kiel II — FAQ
Who will win Nordmark Satrup vs Holstein Kiel II?
Our statistical model makes Holstein Kiel II the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Nordmark Satrup 19%, draw 22%, Holstein Kiel II 59%.
Will both teams score in Nordmark Satrup vs Holstein Kiel II?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Nordmark Satrup vs Holstein Kiel II?
Expected goals are 0.97 for Nordmark Satrup and 2.1 for Holstein Kiel II — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nordmark Satrup vs Holstein Kiel II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (10%). Double chance for Nordmark Satrup or draw is 37%.