Nordmark Satrup vs Kaltenkirchen Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Nordmark Satrup vs Kaltenkirchen
Model pick: Kaltenkirchen (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.53 – 1.78
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nordmark Satrup | Kaltenkirchen |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.8 | 2.0 / 1.8 |
*Nordmark Satrup shown at home, Kaltenkirchen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nordmark Satrup — last 5
WWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Kaltenkirchen — last 5
WLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nordmark Satrup (home) | Kaltenkirchen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 100% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.61
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 68%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.53 vs 1.78):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Nordmark Satrup or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Kaltenkirchen or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Nordmark Satrup clean sheet | 17% |
| Kaltenkirchen clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kaltenkirchen is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Kaltenkirchen edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nordmark Satrup vs Kaltenkirchen — FAQ
Who will win Nordmark Satrup vs Kaltenkirchen?
Our statistical model makes Kaltenkirchen the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Nordmark Satrup 34%, draw 24%, Kaltenkirchen 42%.
Will both teams score in Nordmark Satrup vs Kaltenkirchen?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Nordmark Satrup vs Kaltenkirchen?
Expected goals are 1.53 for Nordmark Satrup and 1.78 for Kaltenkirchen — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nordmark Satrup vs Kaltenkirchen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Nordmark Satrup or draw is 56%.