Norrby vs Östersunds FK Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
Norrby vs Östersunds FK
Model pick: Norrby (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.79 – 0.95
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Norrby | Östersunds FK |
|---|
| League position | #12 (17 pts) | #5 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 29% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
*Norrby shown at home, Östersunds FK shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Norrby — last 5
LWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Östersunds FK — last 5
DWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Norrby (home) | Östersunds FK (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-3-2 in 7 (1.4 / 1.4 goals per game) | 3-2-3 in 8 (1.4 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 44% |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.79 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Norrby or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Östersunds FK or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Norrby clean sheet | 39% |
| Östersunds FK clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Norrby is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Norrby are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Norrby vs Östersunds FK — FAQ
Who will win Norrby vs Östersunds FK?
Our statistical model makes Norrby the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Norrby 54%, draw 25%, Östersunds FK 22%.
Will both teams score in Norrby vs Östersunds FK?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Norrby vs Östersunds FK?
Expected goals are 1.79 for Norrby and 0.95 for Östersunds FK — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Norrby vs Östersunds FK?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for Norrby or draw is 80%.