Norrköping vs Falkenberg Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Aug 24, 2026 · kickoff 17:05 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
Norrköping vs Falkenberg
Model pick: Norrköping (68%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.78 – 0.23
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Norrköping | Falkenberg |
|---|
| League position | #1 (41 pts) | #2 (35 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 0.6 | 2.4 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 56% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 0.2 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
*Norrköping shown at home, Falkenberg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Norrköping — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Falkenberg — last 5
WLDWD
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Norrköping (home) | Falkenberg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-2 in 9 (2.2 / 0.6 goals per game) | 5-2-2 in 9 (2.4 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 60% |
| Top scorer | Christoffer Nyman (3) | Albin Andersson (1) |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.78 vs 0.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Norrköping or draw (1X) | 98% |
| Double chance — Falkenberg or draw (X2) | 10% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 91% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Norrköping clean sheet | 79% |
| Falkenberg clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Norrköping is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. Norrköping are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Norrköping vs Falkenberg — FAQ
Who will win Norrköping vs Falkenberg?
Our statistical model makes Norrköping the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: Norrköping 68%, draw 19%, Falkenberg 13%.
Will both teams score in Norrköping vs Falkenberg?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Norrköping vs Falkenberg?
Expected goals are 2.78 for Norrköping and 0.23 for Falkenberg — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Norrköping vs Falkenberg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (19%). Double chance for Norrköping or draw is 98%.