Norrköping vs Ljungskile Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
Norrköping vs Ljungskile
Model pick: Norrköping (68%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.06 – 0.31
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Norrköping | Ljungskile |
|---|
| League position | #1 (47 pts) | #13 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 0.6 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 70% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 1.0 |
*Norrköping shown at home, Ljungskile shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Norrköping — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Ljungskile — last 5
LLWDL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Norrköping (home) | Ljungskile (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-1-2 in 10 (2.2 / 0.6 goals per game) | 2-5-3 in 10 (1.3 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% |
| Top scorer | Christoffer Nyman (3) | Filip Ambroz (1) |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.06 vs 0.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Norrköping or draw (1X) | 98% |
| Double chance — Ljungskile or draw (X2) | 10% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 92% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Norrköping clean sheet | 73% |
| Ljungskile clean sheet | 5% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Norrköping is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. Norrköping are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Norrköping vs Ljungskile — FAQ
Who will win Norrköping vs Ljungskile?
Our statistical model makes Norrköping the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: Norrköping 68%, draw 18%, Ljungskile 14%.
Will both teams score in Norrköping vs Ljungskile?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Norrköping vs Ljungskile?
Expected goals are 3.06 for Norrköping and 0.31 for Ljungskile — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Norrköping vs Ljungskile?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-0 (16%). Double chance for Norrköping or draw is 98%.