Northampton Town vs Crawley Town Prediction & Preview
League Two (England) · Sep 01, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE TWO (ENGLAND)
Northampton Town vs Crawley Town
Model pick: Northampton Town (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.53 – 0.78
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Northampton Town | Crawley Town |
|---|
| League position | #18 (1 pts) | #15 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 0.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
*Northampton Town shown at home, Crawley Town shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Northampton Town — last 5
WLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Crawley Town — last 5
LWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Northampton Town (home) | Crawley Town (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Tom Eaves (8) | – |
League Two (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.55
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these League Two (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.53 vs 0.78):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Northampton Town or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Crawley Town or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Northampton Town clean sheet | 46% |
| Crawley Town clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Northampton Town is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Northampton Town are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Northampton Town vs Crawley Town — FAQ
Who will win Northampton Town vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model makes Northampton Town the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Northampton Town 52%, draw 27%, Crawley Town 21%.
Will both teams score in Northampton Town vs Crawley Town?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Northampton Town vs Crawley Town?
Expected goals are 1.53 for Northampton Town and 0.78 for Crawley Town — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Northampton Town vs Crawley Town?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Northampton Town or draw is 81%.