Notec Czarnkow vs Elana Toruń Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Notec Czarnkow vs Elana Toruń
Model pick: Elana Toruń (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.57 – 0.84
Total goals: 1.4
Over 2.5: 30%
Both teams score: 39%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Notec Czarnkow | Elana Toruń |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.0 / 1.4 | 2.4 / 1.6 |
*Notec Czarnkow shown at home, Elana Toruń shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Notec Czarnkow — last 5
WWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 67% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Elana Toruń — last 5
LWDDW
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Notec Czarnkow (home) | Elana Toruń (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 67% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 55% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.57 vs 0.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (24%) |
| Double chance — Notec Czarnkow or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Elana Toruń or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 62% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 5% / 95% |
| Notec Czarnkow clean sheet | 43% |
| Elana Toruń clean sheet | 57% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Elana Toruń is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Elana Toruń edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (70% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Notec Czarnkow vs Elana Toruń — FAQ
Who will win Notec Czarnkow vs Elana Toruń?
Our statistical model makes Elana Toruń the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Notec Czarnkow 25%, draw 37%, Elana Toruń 38%.
Will both teams score in Notec Czarnkow vs Elana Toruń?
The model gives a 39% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Notec Czarnkow vs Elana Toruń?
Expected goals are 0.57 for Notec Czarnkow and 0.84 for Elana Toruń — about 1.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Notec Czarnkow vs Elana Toruń?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (24%). Double chance for Notec Czarnkow or draw is 61%.