Notec Czarnkow vs Kluczevia Stargard Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Notec Czarnkow vs Kluczevia Stargard
Model pick: Kluczevia Stargard (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.85 – 2.21
Total goals: 4.1
Over 2.5: 67%
Both teams score: 65%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Notec Czarnkow | Kluczevia Stargard |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.0 | 2.8 / 1.4 |
*Notec Czarnkow shown at home, Kluczevia Stargard shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Notec Czarnkow — last 5
LWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Kluczevia Stargard — last 5
WWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Notec Czarnkow (home) | Kluczevia Stargard (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.85 vs 2.21):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (8%) |
| Double chance — Notec Czarnkow or draw (1X) | 53% |
| Double chance — Kluczevia Stargard or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 91% / 9% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 58% / 42% |
| Notec Czarnkow clean sheet | 11% |
| Kluczevia Stargard clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kluczevia Stargard is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Despite playing away, Kluczevia Stargard edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.1, this shapes as an open game (67% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Notec Czarnkow vs Kluczevia Stargard — FAQ
Who will win Notec Czarnkow vs Kluczevia Stargard?
Our statistical model makes Kluczevia Stargard the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Notec Czarnkow 33%, draw 22%, Kluczevia Stargard 45%.
Will both teams score in Notec Czarnkow vs Kluczevia Stargard?
The model gives a 65% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Notec Czarnkow vs Kluczevia Stargard?
Expected goals are 1.85 for Notec Czarnkow and 2.21 for Kluczevia Stargard — about 4.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Notec Czarnkow vs Kluczevia Stargard?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (8%). Double chance for Notec Czarnkow or draw is 53%.