Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United Prediction & Preview
PL · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PL
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United
Model pick: Nottingham Forest (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.51 – 1.25
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United |
|---|
| League position | #19 (0 pts) | #18 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 2.4 / 0.8 |
*Nottingham Forest shown at home, Leeds United shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nottingham Forest — last 5
LLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Leeds United — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nottingham Forest (home) | Leeds United (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Jesus Igor (7) | – |
PL — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.83
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 53%
Use these PL averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.51 vs 1.25):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Nottingham Forest or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Leeds United or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Nottingham Forest clean sheet | 29% |
| Leeds United clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nottingham Forest is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Nottingham Forest are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United — FAQ
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?
Our statistical model makes Nottingham Forest the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Nottingham Forest 42%, draw 27%, Leeds United 31%.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?
Expected goals are 1.51 for Nottingham Forest and 1.25 for Leeds United — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Nottingham Forest or draw is 69%.