Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction & Preview
PL · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PL
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur
Model pick: Nottingham Forest (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.31
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nottingham Forest | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|
| League position | #15 (1 pts) | #20 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 2.0 / 1.6 |
*Nottingham Forest shown at home, Tottenham Hotspur shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nottingham Forest — last 5
WWLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Tottenham Hotspur — last 5
WDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 59% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nottingham Forest (home) | Tottenham Hotspur (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 59% |
| Top scorer | Jesus Igor (7) | Xavi Simons (3) |
PL — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.83
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 53%
Use these PL averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.42 vs 1.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Nottingham Forest or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Tottenham Hotspur or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Nottingham Forest clean sheet | 27% |
| Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nottingham Forest is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Nottingham Forest are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur — FAQ
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Our statistical model makes Nottingham Forest the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Nottingham Forest 38%, draw 28%, Tottenham Hotspur 34%.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Expected goals are 1.42 for Nottingham Forest and 1.31 for Tottenham Hotspur — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Nottingham Forest or draw is 65%.