Notts County vs Burton Albion Prediction & Preview
League One (England) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE ONE (ENGLAND)
Notts County vs Burton Albion
Model pick: Notts County (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.68 – 1.07
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Notts County | Burton Albion |
|---|
| League position | #15 (2 pts) | #7 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
*Notts County shown at home, Burton Albion shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Notts County — last 5
LDLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Burton Albion — last 5
DWLDW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Notts County (home) | Burton Albion (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 51% |
| Top scorer | Kyle Wootton (18) | Jake Beesley (11) |
League One (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these League One (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.68 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Notts County or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Burton Albion or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Notts County clean sheet | 34% |
| Burton Albion clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Notts County is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Notts County are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Notts County vs Burton Albion — FAQ
Who will win Notts County vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model makes Notts County the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Notts County 44%, draw 28%, Burton Albion 29%.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Burton Albion?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Notts County vs Burton Albion?
Expected goals are 1.68 for Notts County and 1.07 for Burton Albion — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Notts County vs Burton Albion?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Notts County or draw is 76%.