Nove Mesto na Morave vs Karvina B Prediction & Preview
Liga 3 (Czech_Republic) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA 3 (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
Nove Mesto na Morave vs Karvina B
Model pick: Nove Mesto na Morave (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.3 – 1.05
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nove Mesto na Morave | Karvina B |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Nove Mesto na Morave shown at home, Karvina B shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nove Mesto na Morave — last 5
LDLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Karvina B — last 5
LLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nove Mesto na Morave (home) | Karvina B (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
Liga 3 (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.04
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Liga 3 (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.3 vs 1.05):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Nove Mesto na Morave or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Karvina B or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Nove Mesto na Morave clean sheet | 35% |
| Karvina B clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nove Mesto na Morave is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Nove Mesto na Morave are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nove Mesto na Morave vs Karvina B — FAQ
Who will win Nove Mesto na Morave vs Karvina B?
Our statistical model makes Nove Mesto na Morave the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Nove Mesto na Morave 61%, draw 21%, Karvina B 18%.
Will both teams score in Nove Mesto na Morave vs Karvina B?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Nove Mesto na Morave vs Karvina B?
Expected goals are 2.3 for Nove Mesto na Morave and 1.05 for Karvina B — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nove Mesto na Morave vs Karvina B?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Nove Mesto na Morave or draw is 84%.