Novi Pazar vs Mačva Šabac Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
Novi Pazar vs Mačva Šabac
Model pick: Novi Pazar (63%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.82 – 0.55
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Novi Pazar | Mačva Šabac |
|---|
| League position | #9 (7 pts) | #10 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.3 | 0.3 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
*Novi Pazar shown at home, Mačva Šabac shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Novi Pazar — last 5
DLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Mačva Šabac — last 5
LLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Novi Pazar (home) | Mačva Šabac (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-1 in 3 (1.3 / 1.3 goals per game) | 0-0-3 in 3 (0.3 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 37% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% |
| Top scorer | Dominic Sadi (4) | – |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.82 vs 0.55):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Novi Pazar or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Mačva Šabac or draw (X2) | 32% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Novi Pazar clean sheet | 58% |
| Mačva Šabac clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Novi Pazar is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Novi Pazar are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Novi Pazar vs Mačva Šabac — FAQ
Who will win Novi Pazar vs Mačva Šabac?
Our statistical model makes Novi Pazar the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Novi Pazar 63%, draw 24%, Mačva Šabac 13%.
Will both teams score in Novi Pazar vs Mačva Šabac?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Novi Pazar vs Mačva Šabac?
Expected goals are 1.82 for Novi Pazar and 0.55 for Mačva Šabac — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Novi Pazar vs Mačva Šabac?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Novi Pazar or draw is 89%.