Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd
Model pick: Novi Pazar (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.26
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Novi Pazar | OFK Beograd |
|---|
| League position | #4 (3 pts) | #13 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 4.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 1.6 |
*Novi Pazar shown at home, OFK Beograd shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Novi Pazar — last 5
LDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
OFK Beograd — last 5
WLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Novi Pazar (home) | OFK Beograd (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 4.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Dominic Sadi (4) | Milan Rodic (3) |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.4 vs 1.26):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Novi Pazar or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — OFK Beograd or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Novi Pazar clean sheet | 28% |
| OFK Beograd clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Novi Pazar is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Novi Pazar are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd — FAQ
Who will win Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd?
Our statistical model makes Novi Pazar the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Novi Pazar 39%, draw 27%, OFK Beograd 34%.
Will both teams score in Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd?
Expected goals are 1.4 for Novi Pazar and 1.26 for OFK Beograd — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Novi Pazar or draw is 66%.