Novorizontino vs Avaí Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Novorizontino vs Avaí
Model pick: Novorizontino (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.35 – 0.72
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Novorizontino | Avaí |
|---|
| League position | #3 (43 pts) | #16 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.0 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 58% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*Novorizontino shown at home, Avaí shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Novorizontino — last 5
LDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Avaí — last 5
LLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Novorizontino (home) | Avaí (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-2-3 in 12 (1.6 / 1.0 goals per game) | 3-2-7 in 12 (1.1 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 40% |
| Top scorer | Robson (9) | Thayllon (3) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.35 vs 0.72):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Novorizontino or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Avaí or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Novorizontino clean sheet | 49% |
| Avaí clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Novorizontino is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Novorizontino are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Novorizontino vs Avaí — FAQ
Who will win Novorizontino vs Avaí?
Our statistical model makes Novorizontino the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Novorizontino 49%, draw 29%, Avaí 22%.
Will both teams score in Novorizontino vs Avaí?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Novorizontino vs Avaí?
Expected goals are 1.35 for Novorizontino and 0.72 for Avaí — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Novorizontino vs Avaí?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Novorizontino or draw is 80%.