Novorizontino vs Juventude Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Novorizontino vs Juventude
Model pick: Novorizontino (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.2 – 0.66
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Novorizontino | Juventude |
|---|
| League position | #6 (33 pts) | #2 (35 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 22% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*Novorizontino shown at home, Juventude shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Novorizontino — last 5
WLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Juventude — last 5
WWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Novorizontino (home) | Juventude (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-2 in 9 (1.6 / 1.1 goals per game) | 2-3-4 in 9 (0.8 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Robson (7) | Safira Alisson (4) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.2 vs 0.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Novorizontino or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Juventude or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Novorizontino clean sheet | 52% |
| Juventude clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Novorizontino is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Novorizontino are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Novorizontino vs Juventude — FAQ
Who will win Novorizontino vs Juventude?
Our statistical model makes Novorizontino the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Novorizontino 46%, draw 31%, Juventude 23%.
Will both teams score in Novorizontino vs Juventude?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Novorizontino vs Juventude?
Expected goals are 1.2 for Novorizontino and 0.66 for Juventude — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Novorizontino vs Juventude?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Novorizontino or draw is 80%.