Novorizontino vs Sport Recife Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Novorizontino vs Sport Recife
Model pick: Novorizontino (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.33 – 0.9
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Novorizontino | Sport Recife |
|---|
| League position | #4 (37 pts) | #8 (35 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.0 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 55% | 36% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
*Novorizontino shown at home, Sport Recife shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Novorizontino — last 5
LWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Sport Recife — last 5
DDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Novorizontino (home) | Sport Recife (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-2-3 in 11 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 4-4-3 in 11 (0.9 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Robson (7) | Barletta Chrystian (8) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.33 vs 0.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Novorizontino or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Sport Recife or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Novorizontino clean sheet | 41% |
| Sport Recife clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Novorizontino is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Novorizontino are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Novorizontino vs Sport Recife — FAQ
Who will win Novorizontino vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model makes Novorizontino the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Novorizontino 45%, draw 29%, Sport Recife 26%.
Will both teams score in Novorizontino vs Sport Recife?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Novorizontino vs Sport Recife?
Expected goals are 1.33 for Novorizontino and 0.9 for Sport Recife — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Novorizontino vs Sport Recife?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Novorizontino or draw is 75%.