Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes Prediction & Preview
Argentino B (Argentina) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO B (ARGENTINA)
Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes
Model pick: Draw (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.65 – 0.72
Total goals: 1.4
Over 2.5: 29%
Both teams score: 39%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nueva Chicago | Quilmes |
|---|
| League position | #14 (29 pts) | #12 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 31% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Nueva Chicago shown at home, Quilmes shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nueva Chicago — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
Quilmes — last 5
DWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nueva Chicago (home) | Quilmes (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-7-2 in 13 (1.1 / 0.7 goals per game) | 1-4-8 in 13 (0.8 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 45% |
Argentino B (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.11
Home wins: 52%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 19%
Over 2.5: 36%
BTTS: 43%
Use these Argentino B (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.65 vs 0.72):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (25%) |
| Double chance — Nueva Chicago or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Quilmes or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 61% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 5% / 95% |
| Nueva Chicago clean sheet | 49% |
| Quilmes clean sheet | 52% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (71% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes — FAQ
Who will win Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Nueva Chicago 29%, draw 38%, Quilmes 33%.
Will both teams score in Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes?
The model gives a 39% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes?
Expected goals are 0.65 for Nueva Chicago and 0.72 for Quilmes — about 1.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (25%). Double chance for Nueva Chicago or draw is 67%.