Nurnberg II vs Burghausen Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Nurnberg II vs Burghausen
Model pick: Burghausen (78%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.98 – 3.46
Total goals: 4.4
Over 2.5: 70%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nurnberg II | Burghausen |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
*Nurnberg II shown at home, Burghausen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nurnberg II — last 5
WLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Burghausen — last 5
DWWDL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nurnberg II (home) | Burghausen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.31
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.98 vs 3.46):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-3 (8%) |
| Double chance — Nurnberg II or draw (1X) | 17% |
| Double chance — Burghausen or draw (X2) | 93% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 90% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 94% / 6% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Nurnberg II clean sheet | 3% |
| Burghausen clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Burghausen is the model's most likely outcome at
78%. Despite playing away, Burghausen edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.4, this shapes as an open game (70% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nurnberg II vs Burghausen — FAQ
Who will win Nurnberg II vs Burghausen?
Our statistical model makes Burghausen the most likely result at 78%. Full probabilities: Nurnberg II 9%, draw 13%, Burghausen 78%.
Will both teams score in Nurnberg II vs Burghausen?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Nurnberg II vs Burghausen?
Expected goals are 0.98 for Nurnberg II and 3.46 for Burghausen — about 4.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nurnberg II vs Burghausen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-3 (8%). Double chance for Nurnberg II or draw is 17%.