Oţelul vs Universitatea Craiova Prediction & Preview
Liga I (Romania) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA I (ROMANIA)
Oţelul vs Universitatea Craiova
Model pick: Universitatea Craiova (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.08 – 1.29
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Oţelul | Universitatea Craiova |
|---|
| League position | #11 (5 pts) | #25 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*Oţelul shown at home, Universitatea Craiova shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Oţelul — last 5
WWDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Universitatea Craiova — last 5
LDWDL
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Oţelul (home) | Universitatea Craiova (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.0 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 45% |
| Top scorer | Nuno Pedro (7) | Steven Nsimba (10) |
Liga I (Romania) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.39
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Liga I (Romania) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.08 vs 1.29):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Oţelul or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Universitatea Craiova or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Oţelul clean sheet | 28% |
| Universitatea Craiova clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Universitatea Craiova is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, Universitatea Craiova edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Oţelul vs Universitatea Craiova — FAQ
Who will win Oţelul vs Universitatea Craiova?
Our statistical model makes Universitatea Craiova the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Oţelul 26%, draw 28%, Universitatea Craiova 46%.
Will both teams score in Oţelul vs Universitatea Craiova?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Oţelul vs Universitatea Craiova?
Expected goals are 1.08 for Oţelul and 1.29 for Universitatea Craiova — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Oţelul vs Universitatea Craiova?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Oţelul or draw is 59%.