Oakland Roots vs Monterey Bay Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 02:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Oakland Roots vs Monterey Bay
Model pick: Oakland Roots (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.79 – 1.23
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Oakland Roots | Monterey Bay |
|---|
| League position | #11 (22 pts) | #12 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 2.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 30% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 2.8 |
*Oakland Roots shown at home, Monterey Bay shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Oakland Roots — last 5
LLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Monterey Bay — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Oakland Roots (home) | Monterey Bay (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-4 in 10 (1.1 / 1.2 goals per game) | 0-2-8 in 10 (0.8 / 2.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 46%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.79 vs 1.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (16%) |
| Double chance — Oakland Roots or draw (1X) | 53% |
| Double chance — Monterey Bay or draw (X2) | 76% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Oakland Roots clean sheet | 29% |
| Monterey Bay clean sheet | 45% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Oakland Roots is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Oakland Roots are backed at home, where they average 0.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Oakland Roots vs Monterey Bay — FAQ
Who will win Oakland Roots vs Monterey Bay?
Our statistical model makes Oakland Roots the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Oakland Roots 43%, draw 27%, Monterey Bay 30%.
Will both teams score in Oakland Roots vs Monterey Bay?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Oakland Roots vs Monterey Bay?
Expected goals are 0.79 for Oakland Roots and 1.23 for Monterey Bay — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Oakland Roots vs Monterey Bay?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (16%). Double chance for Oakland Roots or draw is 53%.