Oakland Roots vs Orange County SC Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Oakland Roots vs Orange County SC
Model pick: Oakland Roots (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.17 – 1.05
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Oakland Roots | Orange County SC |
|---|
| League position | #11 (26 pts) | #3 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 27% | 45% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 2.4 |
*Oakland Roots shown at home, Orange County SC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Oakland Roots — last 5
LDLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Orange County SC — last 5
WWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Oakland Roots (home) | Orange County SC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-4-4 in 11 (1.1 / 1.2 goals per game) | 5-5-1 in 11 (1.8 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 47%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.17 vs 1.05):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Oakland Roots or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Orange County SC or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Oakland Roots clean sheet | 35% |
| Orange County SC clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Oakland Roots is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Oakland Roots are backed at home, where they average 0.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Oakland Roots vs Orange County SC — FAQ
Who will win Oakland Roots vs Orange County SC?
Our statistical model makes Oakland Roots the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Oakland Roots 44%, draw 28%, Orange County SC 28%.
Will both teams score in Oakland Roots vs Orange County SC?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Oakland Roots vs Orange County SC?
Expected goals are 1.17 for Oakland Roots and 1.05 for Orange County SC — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Oakland Roots vs Orange County SC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Oakland Roots or draw is 67%.