Oberneuland vs Aumund-Vegesack Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Oberneuland vs Aumund-Vegesack
Model pick: Oberneuland (92%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 6.86 – 1.54
Total goals: 8.4
Over 2.5: 78%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Oberneuland | Aumund-Vegesack |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 3.0 | 1.75 / 1.5 |
*Oberneuland shown at home, Aumund-Vegesack shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Oberneuland — last 5
LD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Aumund-Vegesack — last 5
LWWD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Oberneuland (home) | Aumund-Vegesack (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.58
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 66%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (6.86 vs 1.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 6-1 (7%) |
| Double chance — Oberneuland or draw (1X) | 98% |
| Double chance — Aumund-Vegesack or draw (X2) | 5% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 97% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 96% / 4% |
| Oberneuland clean sheet | 21% |
| Aumund-Vegesack clean sheet | 0% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Oberneuland is the model's most likely outcome at
92%. Oberneuland are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 8.4, this shapes as an open game (78% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Oberneuland vs Aumund-Vegesack — FAQ
Who will win Oberneuland vs Aumund-Vegesack?
Our statistical model makes Oberneuland the most likely result at 92%. Full probabilities: Oberneuland 92%, draw 4%, Aumund-Vegesack 3%.
Will both teams score in Oberneuland vs Aumund-Vegesack?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Oberneuland vs Aumund-Vegesack?
Expected goals are 6.86 for Oberneuland and 1.54 for Aumund-Vegesack — about 8.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Oberneuland vs Aumund-Vegesack?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 6-1 (7%). Double chance for Oberneuland or draw is 98%.