OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Beograd Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Beograd
Model pick: OFK Beograd (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.43 – 1.12
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| OFK Beograd | IMT Novi Beograd |
|---|
| League position | #8 (8 pts) | #3 (13 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.7 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
*OFK Beograd shown at home, IMT Novi Beograd shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
OFK Beograd — last 5
LWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
IMT Novi Beograd — last 5
WLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | OFK Beograd (home) | IMT Novi Beograd (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-2-0 in 3 (1.0 / 0.7 goals per game) | 2-0-2 in 4 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Milan Rodic (3) | Charly Keita (4) |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.43 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — OFK Beograd or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — IMT Novi Beograd or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| OFK Beograd clean sheet | 33% |
| IMT Novi Beograd clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
OFK Beograd is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. OFK Beograd are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Beograd — FAQ
Who will win OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Beograd?
Our statistical model makes OFK Beograd the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: OFK Beograd 42%, draw 27%, IMT Novi Beograd 30%.
Will both teams score in OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Beograd?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Beograd?
Expected goals are 1.43 for OFK Beograd and 1.12 for IMT Novi Beograd — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Beograd?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for OFK Beograd or draw is 70%.