OFK Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
OFK Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica
Model pick: OFK Beograd (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.51 – 0.93
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| OFK Beograd | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|
| League position | #13 (0 pts) | #9 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.8 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
*OFK Beograd shown at home, Radnik Surdulica shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
OFK Beograd — last 5
WWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Radnik Surdulica — last 5
DDLWD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | OFK Beograd (home) | Radnik Surdulica (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Milan Rodic (3) | Luka Zoric (3) |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.51 vs 0.93):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — OFK Beograd or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Radnik Surdulica or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| OFK Beograd clean sheet | 39% |
| Radnik Surdulica clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
OFK Beograd is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. OFK Beograd are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ OFK Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica — FAQ
Who will win OFK Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica?
Our statistical model makes OFK Beograd the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: OFK Beograd 48%, draw 27%, Radnik Surdulica 25%.
Will both teams score in OFK Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in OFK Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica?
Expected goals are 1.51 for OFK Beograd and 0.93 for Radnik Surdulica — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in OFK Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for OFK Beograd or draw is 77%.