OFK Beograd vs Zemun Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
OFK Beograd vs Zemun
Model pick: OFK Beograd (79%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.79 – 0.53
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| OFK Beograd | Zemun |
|---|
| League position | #9 (5 pts) | #14 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 3.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 2.0 |
*OFK Beograd shown at home, Zemun shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
OFK Beograd — last 5
DLWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Zemun — last 5
WDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | OFK Beograd (home) | Zemun (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-0 in 2 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.0 / 3.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 51% |
| Top scorer | Milan Rodic (3) | – |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.79 vs 0.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — OFK Beograd or draw (1X) | 95% |
| Double chance — Zemun or draw (X2) | 16% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 89% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| OFK Beograd clean sheet | 59% |
| Zemun clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
OFK Beograd is the model's most likely outcome at
79%. OFK Beograd are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ OFK Beograd vs Zemun — FAQ
Who will win OFK Beograd vs Zemun?
Our statistical model makes OFK Beograd the most likely result at 79%. Full probabilities: OFK Beograd 79%, draw 14%, Zemun 7%.
Will both teams score in OFK Beograd vs Zemun?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in OFK Beograd vs Zemun?
Expected goals are 2.79 for OFK Beograd and 0.53 for Zemun — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in OFK Beograd vs Zemun?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (14%). Double chance for OFK Beograd or draw is 95%.