OFK Pirin vs Ludogorets II Prediction & Preview
B PFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
B PFG (BULGARIA)
OFK Pirin vs Ludogorets II
Model pick: Ludogorets II (73%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.44 – 2.23
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| OFK Pirin | Ludogorets II |
|---|
| League position | #18 (0 pts) | #14 (8 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.7 / 3.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 3.2 | 0.4 / 1.4 |
*OFK Pirin shown at home, Ludogorets II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
OFK Pirin — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Ludogorets II — last 5
LLDDL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 20% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | OFK Pirin (home) | Ludogorets II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-3 in 3 (0.7 / 3.0 goals per game) | 1-1-2 in 4 (0.5 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 20% |
B PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.56
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 46%
Use these B PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.44 vs 2.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (17%) |
| Double chance — OFK Pirin or draw (1X) | 21% |
| Double chance — Ludogorets II or draw (X2) | 94% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| OFK Pirin clean sheet | 11% |
| Ludogorets II clean sheet | 64% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ludogorets II is the model's most likely outcome at
73%. Despite playing away, Ludogorets II edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ OFK Pirin vs Ludogorets II — FAQ
Who will win OFK Pirin vs Ludogorets II?
Our statistical model makes Ludogorets II the most likely result at 73%. Full probabilities: OFK Pirin 8%, draw 19%, Ludogorets II 73%.
Will both teams score in OFK Pirin vs Ludogorets II?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in OFK Pirin vs Ludogorets II?
Expected goals are 0.44 for OFK Pirin and 2.23 for Ludogorets II — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in OFK Pirin vs Ludogorets II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (17%). Double chance for OFK Pirin or draw is 21%.