Oldham Athletic vs Port Vale Prediction & Preview
League Two (England) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE TWO (ENGLAND)
Oldham Athletic vs Port Vale
Model pick: Oldham Athletic (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.14 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Oldham Athletic | Port Vale |
|---|
| League position | #8 (0 pts) | #9 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.8 | 2.0 / 0.8 |
*Oldham Athletic shown at home, Port Vale shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Oldham Athletic — last 5
LLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Port Vale — last 5
WWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Oldham Athletic (home) | Port Vale (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Mike Fondop-Talum (8) | – |
League Two (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.55
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these League Two (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.14 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Oldham Athletic or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Port Vale or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Oldham Athletic clean sheet | 32% |
| Port Vale clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Oldham Athletic is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Oldham Athletic are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Oldham Athletic vs Port Vale — FAQ
Who will win Oldham Athletic vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model makes Oldham Athletic the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Oldham Athletic 36%, draw 29%, Port Vale 35%.
Will both teams score in Oldham Athletic vs Port Vale?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Oldham Athletic vs Port Vale?
Expected goals are 1.14 for Oldham Athletic and 1.15 for Port Vale — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Oldham Athletic vs Port Vale?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Oldham Athletic or draw is 64%.