Olimpia Elbląg vs Wigry Suwałki Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Olimpia Elbląg vs Wigry Suwałki
Model pick: Draw (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.68 – 0.72
Total goals: 1.4
Over 2.5: 29%
Both teams score: 40%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Olimpia Elbląg | Wigry Suwałki |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 0.4 |
*Olimpia Elbląg shown at home, Wigry Suwałki shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Olimpia Elbląg — last 5
LWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Wigry Suwałki — last 5
WWDWD
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Olimpia Elbląg (home) | Wigry Suwałki (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 49% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 63%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.68 vs 0.72):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (25%) |
| Double chance — Olimpia Elbląg or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Wigry Suwałki or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 62% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 5% / 95% |
| Olimpia Elbląg clean sheet | 49% |
| Wigry Suwałki clean sheet | 51% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (71% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Olimpia Elbląg vs Wigry Suwałki — FAQ
Who will win Olimpia Elbląg vs Wigry Suwałki?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Olimpia Elbląg 30%, draw 38%, Wigry Suwałki 32%.
Will both teams score in Olimpia Elbląg vs Wigry Suwałki?
The model gives a 40% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Olimpia Elbląg vs Wigry Suwałki?
Expected goals are 0.68 for Olimpia Elbląg and 0.72 for Wigry Suwałki — about 1.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Olimpia Elbląg vs Wigry Suwałki?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (25%). Double chance for Olimpia Elbląg or draw is 68%.