Olimpia vs Cerro Porteño Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Paraguay) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PARAGUAY)
Olimpia vs Cerro Porteño
Model pick: Cerro Porteño (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.16 – 1.37
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Olimpia | Cerro Porteño |
|---|
| League position | #2 (188 pts) | #1 (197 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*Olimpia shown at home, Cerro Porteño shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Olimpia — last 5
LWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Cerro Porteño — last 5
LWLDW
On the road: clean sheet 35% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Olimpia (home) | Cerro Porteño (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 35% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Lorenzo Melgarejo (4) | Pablo Vegetti (3) |
Primera Division (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.16 vs 1.37):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Olimpia or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Cerro Porteño or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Olimpia clean sheet | 25% |
| Cerro Porteño clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cerro Porteño is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Cerro Porteño edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Olimpia vs Cerro Porteño — FAQ
Who will win Olimpia vs Cerro Porteño?
Our statistical model makes Cerro Porteño the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Olimpia 32%, draw 28%, Cerro Porteño 40%.
Will both teams score in Olimpia vs Cerro Porteño?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Olimpia vs Cerro Porteño?
Expected goals are 1.16 for Olimpia and 1.37 for Cerro Porteño — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Olimpia vs Cerro Porteño?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Olimpia or draw is 58%.