Olimpia vs Sportivo Ameliano Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Paraguay) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PARAGUAY)
Olimpia vs Sportivo Ameliano
Model pick: Olimpia (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.54 – 0.96
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Olimpia | Sportivo Ameliano |
|---|
| League position | #2 (188 pts) | #9 (137 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
*Olimpia shown at home, Sportivo Ameliano shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Olimpia — last 5
LLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Sportivo Ameliano — last 5
DDDDW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Olimpia (home) | Sportivo Ameliano (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 47% |
| Top scorer | Lorenzo Melgarejo (4) | Elvio Vera (6) |
Primera Division (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.54 vs 0.96):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Olimpia or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Sportivo Ameliano or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Olimpia clean sheet | 38% |
| Sportivo Ameliano clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Olimpia is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Olimpia are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Olimpia vs Sportivo Ameliano — FAQ
Who will win Olimpia vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Our statistical model makes Olimpia the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Olimpia 48%, draw 27%, Sportivo Ameliano 25%.
Will both teams score in Olimpia vs Sportivo Ameliano?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Olimpia vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Expected goals are 1.54 for Olimpia and 0.96 for Sportivo Ameliano — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Olimpia vs Sportivo Ameliano?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Olimpia or draw is 76%.