Olimpia Zambrów vs Olimpia Elbląg Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Olimpia Zambrów vs Olimpia Elbląg
Model pick: Olimpia Zambrów (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.63 – 3.14
Total goals: 6.8
Over 2.5: 87%
Both teams score: 79%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Olimpia Zambrów | Olimpia Elbląg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
*Olimpia Zambrów shown at home, Olimpia Elbląg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Olimpia Zambrów — last 5
LDLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Olimpia Elbląg — last 5
WDDLW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Olimpia Zambrów (home) | Olimpia Elbląg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 41% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.63 vs 3.14):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-3 (5%) |
| Double chance — Olimpia Zambrów or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Olimpia Elbląg or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 90% / 10% |
| Olimpia Zambrów clean sheet | 4% |
| Olimpia Elbląg clean sheet | 3% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Olimpia Zambrów is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Olimpia Zambrów are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 6.8, this shapes as an open game (87% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Olimpia Zambrów vs Olimpia Elbląg — FAQ
Who will win Olimpia Zambrów vs Olimpia Elbląg?
Our statistical model makes Olimpia Zambrów the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Olimpia Zambrów 47%, draw 18%, Olimpia Elbląg 35%.
Will both teams score in Olimpia Zambrów vs Olimpia Elbląg?
The model gives a 79% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Olimpia Zambrów vs Olimpia Elbląg?
Expected goals are 3.63 for Olimpia Zambrów and 3.14 for Olimpia Elbląg — about 6.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Olimpia Zambrów vs Olimpia Elbląg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-3 (5%). Double chance for Olimpia Zambrów or draw is 65%.