Olimpija vs Aluminij Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Olimpija vs Aluminij
Model pick: Olimpija (60%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.01 – 0.75
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Olimpija | Aluminij |
|---|
| League position | #9 (0 pts) | #7 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.6 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
*Olimpija shown at home, Aluminij shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Olimpija — last 5
DLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Aluminij — last 5
LDLDD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Olimpija (home) | Aluminij (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 57% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.01 vs 0.75):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Olimpija or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Aluminij or draw (X2) | 33% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Olimpija clean sheet | 47% |
| Aluminij clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Olimpija is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Olimpija are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Olimpija vs Aluminij — FAQ
Who will win Olimpija vs Aluminij?
Our statistical model makes Olimpija the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Olimpija 60%, draw 22%, Aluminij 17%.
Will both teams score in Olimpija vs Aluminij?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Olimpija vs Aluminij?
Expected goals are 2.01 for Olimpija and 0.75 for Aluminij — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Olimpija vs Aluminij?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (13%). Double chance for Olimpija or draw is 87%.