Olimpija vs Grosuplje Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Olimpija vs Grosuplje
Model pick: Olimpija (62%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.04 – 0.77
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Olimpija | Grosuplje |
|---|
| League position | #6 (8 pts) | #5 (8 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.4 | 2.4 / 1.6 |
*Olimpija shown at home, Grosuplje shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Olimpija — last 5
WLDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Grosuplje — last 5
DWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Olimpija (home) | Grosuplje (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-1 in 4 (0.8 / 0.8 goals per game) | 1-1-2 in 4 (1.2 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 50% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.04 vs 0.77):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Olimpija or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Grosuplje or draw (X2) | 33% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Olimpija clean sheet | 46% |
| Grosuplje clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Olimpija is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Olimpija are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Olimpija vs Grosuplje — FAQ
Who will win Olimpija vs Grosuplje?
Our statistical model makes Olimpija the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Olimpija 62%, draw 22%, Grosuplje 16%.
Will both teams score in Olimpija vs Grosuplje?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Olimpija vs Grosuplje?
Expected goals are 2.04 for Olimpija and 0.77 for Grosuplje — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Olimpija vs Grosuplje?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (13%). Double chance for Olimpija or draw is 87%.