Olimpija vs Maribor Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Olimpija vs Maribor
Model pick: Maribor (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.12
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Olimpija | Maribor |
|---|
| League position | #8 (3 pts) | #1 (8 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 0.4 |
*Olimpija shown at home, Maribor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Olimpija — last 5
LLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Maribor — last 5
DWDDW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Olimpija (home) | Maribor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (0.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-2-0 in 2 (0.5 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 57% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.2 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Olimpija or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Maribor or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Olimpija clean sheet | 33% |
| Maribor clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Maribor is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Despite playing away, Maribor edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Olimpija vs Maribor — FAQ
Who will win Olimpija vs Maribor?
Our statistical model makes Maribor the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Olimpija 35%, draw 28%, Maribor 36%.
Will both teams score in Olimpija vs Maribor?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Olimpija vs Maribor?
Expected goals are 1.2 for Olimpija and 1.12 for Maribor — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Olimpija vs Maribor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Olimpija or draw is 66%.