Olimpija vs Nafta Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Olimpija vs Nafta
Model pick: Olimpija (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.93 – 0.73
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Olimpija | Nafta |
|---|
| League position | #9 (4 pts) | #3 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.7 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 1.6 |
*Olimpija shown at home, Nafta shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Olimpija — last 5
LLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Nafta — last 5
LWWDL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Olimpija (home) | Nafta (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-1 in 3 (0.7 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (2.0 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 43% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.93 vs 0.73):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Olimpija or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Nafta or draw (X2) | 34% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Olimpija clean sheet | 48% |
| Nafta clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Olimpija is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Olimpija are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Olimpija vs Nafta — FAQ
Who will win Olimpija vs Nafta?
Our statistical model makes Olimpija the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Olimpija 61%, draw 23%, Nafta 16%.
Will both teams score in Olimpija vs Nafta?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Olimpija vs Nafta?
Expected goals are 1.93 for Olimpija and 0.73 for Nafta — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Olimpija vs Nafta?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Olimpija or draw is 87%.