Olympique Béja vs Ben Guerdane Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (TUNISIA)
Olympique Béja vs Ben Guerdane
Model pick: Olympique Béja (34%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.89 – 0.84
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 36%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Olympique Béja | Ben Guerdane |
|---|
| League position | #14 (0 pts) | #11 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
*Olympique Béja shown at home, Ben Guerdane shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Olympique Béja — last 5
WLWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Ben Guerdane — last 5
WWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 28% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Olympique Béja (home) | Ben Guerdane (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 28% |
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.98
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 36%
Use these Ligue 1 (Tunisia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.89 vs 0.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Olympique Béja or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Ben Guerdane or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 66% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 52% / 48% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 10% / 90% |
| Olympique Béja clean sheet | 43% |
| Ben Guerdane clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Olympique Béja is the model's most likely outcome at
34%. Olympique Béja are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (64% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Olympique Béja vs Ben Guerdane — FAQ
Who will win Olympique Béja vs Ben Guerdane?
Our statistical model makes Olympique Béja the most likely result at 34%. Full probabilities: Olympique Béja 34%, draw 34%, Ben Guerdane 32%.
Will both teams score in Olympique Béja vs Ben Guerdane?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Olympique Béja vs Ben Guerdane?
Expected goals are 0.89 for Olympique Béja and 0.84 for Ben Guerdane — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Olympique Béja vs Ben Guerdane?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (18%). Double chance for Olympique Béja or draw is 68%.