Olympique Lyonnais vs Auxerre Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (France) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (FRANCE)
Olympique Lyonnais vs Auxerre
Model pick: Olympique Lyonnais (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.97 – 0.97
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Olympique Lyonnais | Auxerre |
|---|
| League position | #1 (21 pts) | #18 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 0.8 | 2.0 / 5.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
*Olympique Lyonnais shown at home, Auxerre shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Olympique Lyonnais — last 5
WDWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Auxerre — last 5
DDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Olympique Lyonnais (home) | Auxerre (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-0 in 4 (2.5 / 0.8 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (2.0 / 5.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Corentin Tolisso (4) | – |
Ligue 1 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Ligue 1 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.97 vs 0.97):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Olympique Lyonnais or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Auxerre or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Olympique Lyonnais clean sheet | 38% |
| Auxerre clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Olympique Lyonnais is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Olympique Lyonnais are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Olympique Lyonnais vs Auxerre — FAQ
Who will win Olympique Lyonnais vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model makes Olympique Lyonnais the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Olympique Lyonnais 57%, draw 23%, Auxerre 20%.
Will both teams score in Olympique Lyonnais vs Auxerre?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Olympique Lyonnais vs Auxerre?
Expected goals are 1.97 for Olympique Lyonnais and 0.97 for Auxerre — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Olympique Lyonnais vs Auxerre?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (10%). Double chance for Olympique Lyonnais or draw is 82%.