Olympique Lyonnais vs Le Havre Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (France) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (FRANCE)
Olympique Lyonnais vs Le Havre
Model pick: Olympique Lyonnais (62%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.04 – 0.95
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Olympique Lyonnais | Le Havre |
|---|
| League position | #1 (21 pts) | #14 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 0.8 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*Olympique Lyonnais shown at home, Le Havre shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Olympique Lyonnais — last 5
LLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Le Havre — last 5
DLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 36% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Olympique Lyonnais (home) | Le Havre (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-0 in 4 (2.5 / 0.8 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 36% |
| Top scorer | Corentin Tolisso (4) | – |
Ligue 1 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Ligue 1 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.04 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Olympique Lyonnais or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Le Havre or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Olympique Lyonnais clean sheet | 39% |
| Le Havre clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Olympique Lyonnais is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Olympique Lyonnais are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Olympique Lyonnais vs Le Havre — FAQ
Who will win Olympique Lyonnais vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model makes Olympique Lyonnais the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Olympique Lyonnais 62%, draw 22%, Le Havre 16%.
Will both teams score in Olympique Lyonnais vs Le Havre?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Olympique Lyonnais vs Le Havre?
Expected goals are 2.04 for Olympique Lyonnais and 0.95 for Le Havre — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Olympique Lyonnais vs Le Havre?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (10%). Double chance for Olympique Lyonnais or draw is 83%.