Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 17, 2026 · kickoff 01:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera
Model pick: Once Caldas (56%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.45 – 0.82
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Once Caldas | Alianza Petrolera |
|---|
| League position | #5 (34 pts) | #17 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Once Caldas shown at home, Alianza Petrolera shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Once Caldas — last 5
WWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Alianza Petrolera — last 5
WLDLL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Once Caldas (home) | Alianza Petrolera (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 39% |
| Top scorer | Dayro Moreno (10) | – |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.45 vs 0.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Once Caldas or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Alianza Petrolera or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Once Caldas clean sheet | 44% |
| Alianza Petrolera clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Once Caldas is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Once Caldas are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera — FAQ
Who will win Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera?
Our statistical model makes Once Caldas the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Once Caldas 56%, draw 26%, Alianza Petrolera 18%.
Will both teams score in Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera?
Expected goals are 1.45 for Once Caldas and 0.82 for Alianza Petrolera — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Once Caldas vs Alianza Petrolera?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Once Caldas or draw is 79%.